A Quick Rundown on the CA Governor's Race
Because of California's open primary process, there's a more-than-slight possibility that the top two finishers in the June primary are Republicans, a shocking possibility in a state where only 30% of voters are registered as Republican. If you'd like to see the odds, check out TWINS, a probability generator for the race.
You'd think that would create a lot of pressure on the nine Democrats in the race to start grappling with reality, dropping out if their chances are too low. So far that hasn't happened, but this weekend is the California State Democratic Party convention in San Francisco. It's possible that, after a delegate vote and a hard look at their campaign funds, a few candidates will start to draw that conclusion. Until then, I thought I'd give my impression of the candidates, based on a marathon forum conducted by Nancy Tung and the SF Dems that I attended to today. I've also included a few sketches I did, and no, I don't have a shoe fetish. I just think they are easier to draw.
First up was Katie Porter. Known for her white boards and corporate accountability work in Congress, Katie impressed me with her strong policy knowledge, imaginative solutions, and leadership presence. I had sort of soured on her during her Senate campaign, finding her annoying, but she demonstrated a really quick mind and really strong values. She's the only non-billionaire in the race not accepting corporate donations, and I think that speaks to her commitment to finance reform. She won in Orange County so I think she can forge bipartisan results without compromising principles, notwithstanding her "progressive reputation."
Tom Steyer. The billionaire hedge fund manager presented his bio as evidence that he is preordained to greatness and somehow also service. It was much less about policy and a lot more, trust me, I am a rich guy who will stand up to other rich guys because I want to serve the people of California. He has a savior complex. He says that he and his wife plan to give away their billions but it mostly seems to be going to his political campaigns for office and to ballot measures. He isn't wrong that corporate real estate taxes are fucked up in this state but I'd rather he fund another candidate who can actually solve other problems or another ballot measure to deal with the problem. Like Trump, he believes being successful in business translate into government expertise and I personally find that condescending to actual public servants.
Eric Swalwell. Again, lots of biography. He was a prosecutor, head of the CIA, and is most proud of his public safety endorsement. Long story short, he's a cop. His policy ideas involved reaching out to "international capital" for investments in California, whatever that means. He's the Dem frontrunner and I think that's because he's closely associated with the January 6 committee work he did. CA Dems wants someone they know will fight Trump. That's only a small part of the job of running the world's 4th largest economy. I don't favor him for governor.
Ian Calderon. I don't know who this guy was other than "first millenial in the state legislature." I'm sure he's a nice person but he mentioned that his wife was cooped up in a hotel room with their four kids (aged 3 to 8) and had only sent 2 SOS texts, so my bet is that he's out of the race by the end of the weekend.
Betty Yee. Betty has so much experience and so much knowledge that, on paper, she's a top tier candidate. She understands the state budget thoroughly and has overseen huge state agencies. She lacks stage presence and dynamism that voters want, though, and might go too far in the weeds on the details. She is what I feared Porter would be. I am sure she'd be capable; I'm just not sure she'll get a chance to show it.
Tony Thurmond. Tony is the current Superintendent of Public Schools and he was brimming with ideas for school reform. The problem is, he's been in a position to do something about school reform for years in his current and prior legislative position and didn't have anything to brag about. He's a good speaker but not an effective leader. Like Calderon, I hope he counts his cards and goes home after this weekend.
Xavier Becerra. Former Attorney General and Biden's head of Health and Human Services, Becerra has a deep knowledge of California law and lots of experience implementing national programs that delivered results (750 million COVID shots in 9 months, all delivered for free, plus renegotiated drug prices for Medicare). Like Yee, he has incredible knowledge and experience. He was the only one who came out and thanked the moderator for her hard work, and not in a pandering way. I liked him. I am not sure voters will learn about him quickly enough though.
Antonio Villaraigosa. If you told me that the former mayor of LA had done a few shots before he came on stage, I would have taken that as the best explanation for why he was so relaxed that he forgot to hold his mic to his hand. He was mostly reminiscing about his achievements in LA and promising to bring Kinsey and other consultants in to make "dashboards." His "shero" (kill me) is Barbara Boxer and he prizes her endorsement most of all. Boxer retired almost ten years ago, and that feels appropriate to Villaraigosa's relevance in this race. He should drop out this weekend too.
Matt Mahan. Finally we reach the end. Mahan is the mayor of San Jose and he had only a surface level set of suggestions for fixing problems, none of which involved system change. Reforming education will require tough chats with the teachers unions, teacher mentors, more school testing that is also somehow better than our existing testing, and probably more dashboards. As though no one has thought of this stuff before. He's supported by Big Tech. He believes that "short encounters with the criminal justice system" (not a thing that exists) can convince chronically homeless people to go into housing but assures us that's not the same thing as criminalizing homelessness. And so on. He entered the race too late to make it onto the delegate ballot at the convention. He should drop out but he's probably getting too much Tech money to leave yet.
My top three: Porter, Yee, Becerra
My bottom three: Steyer, Villaraigosa, Mahan
