Predictions of Disappointment

We only know that things are too good to be true in hindsight. And by things, I mean ideas, companies, products, relationships – anything that doesn’t live up to the hopes that people have for them. Theranos was poised to revolutionize healthcare until the curtain was pulled back on “Liz” Holmes’s fraud scheme. It was too good to be true. I was an early adopter of the Volkswagen diesel. My desire to avoid fossil fuels was a huge motivation. Unlike a lot of people, I wasn’t driving my Jetta Sportwagon TDI when the truth came out. I’d sold it a few years earlier because I ran out of gas more than once trying to find a station that sold diesel. Lucky me, but I didn’t guess that it was too good to be true.

For the sake of brevity, let’s call these types of events or things “TG2BT.” History is riddled with TG2BT situations, and most of us want to avoid being taken in but have a hard time forecasting which of the TG2BTs might be the real deal – the “it’s as good as they say it is.” Even with our natural skepticism, we still want to take a chance on things that might really change our world. Here are a few things which I predict are too good to be true and why.

Artificial and Lab-grown meat

Fake meat has been around for a while. From tofu and textured vegetable protein to Beyond Meat and Impossible burgers, people have been trying to pass off non-meat as meat since vegetarians had only Natural Food Stores and Moosewood to patronize. Recently, the FDA approved “cultured meat,” grown from real animal cells. No animals are killed in the process, we are promised.

I am not ahead of my time in declaring fake meat to be TG2BT. Bloomberg and nutritionists are both declaring it obsolete already. Meanwhile, new businesses are snapping up venture capital to make more. Why will fake meat bomb? The Washington Post thinks it’s because fake meat is unappetizing and unaffordable. Personally, I think that’s true AND it’s going to turn out that one of these companies is in fact harming animals to produce their product (the Theranos problem), and/or it turns out that this fake meat is really bad for you, given that it’s an ultra-processed food (the Volkswagen problem).

Ridwell

Ridwell is a waste management company dedicated to recycling hard-to-recycle waste items. They are an additional provider to your usual sanitation company (public or private) and pick up their special bags of your plastic bags, light bulbs, and ripped clothes and then recycle them responsibly. I think this is TG2BT.

In fact, I think recycling is a scam we were taught in elementary school in the 1980s to make us feel like we (the consumers), and not the producers, were responsible for the excess plastic in the waste stream. Only 5% of plastic is actually recycled and it’s not economical to recycle most other stuff, even paper. So I don’t think Ridwell is going to be able to disrupt this entire waste stream problem by driving a truck around to pick up our shit separately from Waste Management. Pollution is an upstream problem that does not have a downstream solution. Producers need to be held accountable; not consumers. I think it’s going to turn out that Ridwell is tossing their shit in a landfill just like Recology does.

Mushrooms

Look, I think mushrooms are great. I like to eat them; I like to hunt them. I think they are beautiful and fascinating. I believe that psychedelic mushrooms should be studied for medicinal purposes. I think it’s cool that mushrooms can convert petroleum to a non-toxic substance. But let’s be honest: mushrooms are TG2BT.

Have you watched Fantastic Fungi (it’s on Netflix; I recommend it) or The Last of Us (on HBO, also recommend)? They offer two very opposing views of the fate of mushrooms. In the minds of their fans, mushrooms are either going to save the world or they are going to destroy the world. I don’t think either outcome is likely. Mushrooms are not going to cure PTSD or cancer or replace meat or stop oil spills, probably because capitalism doesn’t like products that are abundant and very hard to patent. If no one can become obscenely wealthy off it, it probably won’t go the distance. I’d be happy to be proven wrong on this one but mushrooms are TG2BT.

USAA

If you don’t have a USAA membership, you need to figure out how to get it. USAA provides insurance and banking services to members of the military and their families, but membership can be gained through almost any family connection. For example, I got my membership because my stepfather’s father was in the Navy and both of them were USAA members. My husband got his membership because his dad was in the Army, and our kids got their membership numbers at birth. USAA, and I am a true believer, has the best rates and customer service of any insurer or bank on the planet.

Once, a GEICO sales agent cold-called me, and when I told him I already have USAA, he sighed, and said, “Yeah, my parents do too. I can’t get them to switch even though I work here.” I told him he needed to get his member number STAT because as soon as he left that awful job, he’d want USAA.

When I called for a car loan (for the diesel Volkswagen, actually), the loan officer asked me some very probing questions about whether I really needed the car and whether I could really afford it. When I expressed surprise at how thorough she was, she said they really try to dissuade young servicemembers from borrowing money for a new car, which is often their first decision when they enlist. Their salary won’t cover the payments, and they probably won’t live anywhere near the car for their tour of duty. She was very maternal and nice about it and it didn’t bother me how intrusive she was. I wish she had asked me whether I really believed diesel was going to save the world.

So why do I think it’s TG2BT? I actually think USAA is as good as I am telling you that it is. I am just very worried that there’s going to be some leadership scandal that tarnishes USAA or they’re going to take some appalling political position that makes it impossible to continue supporting them. You simply cannot trust any company, no matter how committed it is to the common good, to be as perfect as they seem. Please prove me wrong, USAA.

More OPPP!!

I hadn’t intended to turn this into a regular feature, but readers know what they like, so here’s another list of pet peeves from an old friend and my reactions.

• Mimes (duh!) Or like, any street performer who tries to demand your attention. I’m just trying to walk to work, fuck off.
• Inefficiency (the German part of me shoved all other voices and nationalities in me out of the way, to get to the front of the line, to say this…through a megaphone).
• Megaphones
• Male guitarists
• Tennis line judges
• Crafters
• The MTA
• Gardening
• Unicyclists
• Protesters who are WAY too into it. There was a guy in grad school (W’s unfounded war, so there were tons of anti-war protests at that time) who we all called “protest guy” and everyone knew who you were talking about if you mentioned him.
• Comedy
• Direct sunlight
• Self-righteousness (hehe)
• Oh god, the word “Creatives” and all iterations of it. I literally want to throw up that that’s a thing. or “the creative” which I guess people might think is a design or artwork of some sort. It’s not. It’s just not. Total gag!!!!!!
• People who call themselves artists. I don’t even care if you are one. I call myself an artist.
• Heat, in general
• Tee shirts. Wearing them, that is. They are fine on other people.

Okay, so there’s a lot to work with here. Mimes and unicyclists really occupy the same space, right? Just ostentatious counter-culturalism in a completely non-political way. Like folding bicycles and vapers, which are also pet peeves of mine. Heat? Direct sunlight? I think my friend is a vampire. As a crafter/gardener, I am a little hurt by this, but hey, she’s entitled to her pet peeves [as I whisper, no more handmade gifts for you, lovey].

I sometimes worry that I used to be protest guy. In 1996, I told a friend from DC that I was going to the Women’s March and he excitedly said, “Oh I love marches! We used to cut school to go watch them. So funny!” It hurt my feelings a tiny bit, but I get it.

Speaking of excited utterances, the other day, Brook and I were driving to get lunch and we passed a new Chik-Fil-A that just opened. I blurted out, in an inexplicably excited way, “That Chik-Fil-A used to be a Panera!” What the hell is wrong with me? And yes, Brook has brought this up, to his merriment, several times since.

Send me your TG2BT, your OPPP, and your excited but embarrassing utterances, please!